Managers hate the unknown.  They can’t punch numbers in the calculator with much assurance, or build a nice spreadsheet model to predict future earnings.  To feel safe they need real data, and the more the better.  Very few have the confidence to kill off a known product selling well, to introduce a product that they believe will sell better.  They simply will not leave the safety of the shark cage for the swim of a lifetime.

There are the rare explorers that are not afraid.  It is a key personality trait of true entrepreneurs.  For example Steve Jobs of Apple has killed many successful products, when he believes something better is loaded in the pipeline.

Sadly ESPN’s managers lack this moxie, as shown by their recent BCS contract signing for college football.  Sure it brings them TV rights for the 2011 to 2013 title game.  They absolutely paid a record sum, blowing away past rights fees.  But it was comfortable.  They stayed in the cage.  They had the numbers for both game viewership and obviously know what their satellite and cable revenues are.  It was easy to pen.

Sadly it was the perfect opportunity to blow college football viewership wide open.  Imagine if they had asked for a playoff system.  Perhaps take the conference champions to start with.  Then add in wildcards from schools outside of the BCS, or the team that lost their league because their quarterback was injured one week.  Take 16 teams and play within the current bowl names.  Play 8 games over Thanksgiving weekend, and 4 the next.  Give the kids a break to take finals.  Then play 2 games around Christmas day, and the championship game on New Years Day.

The holidays would take on a totally new meaning.  Retailers would complain, as shoppers stay home to watch the games.  People that do not know what a first down is, would watch to see how their office bracket is doing.  Casual fans would research teams they normally do not follow while filling in their bracket.  The college game would ultimately benefit greatly.  ESPN would need more dump trucks to haul their record earnings to the bank.  Too bad…  ESPN’s managers are pansies.

Naturally there are lots of great reasons division 1 college football needs a playoff, but one in particular really affects myself.  I can’t stay interested.  I simply don’t follow a team.  The product on the field is great, often much funner to watch than pro football.  But without a post season it simply feels like exhibition games. Two teams play a game but they do not have real meaning.  If a good game is on, and I’m watching TV, I may watch, or I may not.

This is similar to my feelings about the independent baseball leagues.  We take the kids to the park, and enjoy the game, eat a hot dog, and yell at the ref’s calls.  There is a chance the game is more entertaining than going across town to a pro game, especially given the huge payroll differences in pro baseball.  In the end it is a fun time, but the game is meaningless.  The winner may go on to some playoff, but only a select set of fans really care.

As all my college degrees are from regional (read division II) schools, I do not have a natural division 1 Alma Mater to follow.  In basketball I follow Kansas University, they have a post season… it feels real (I have earned credit at KU). Teams get there through on the court play, not selected by a few writers (well technically, but with 64 teams it doesn’t matter).  It is the only post season that sends every office in town into a frenzy.  Not even pro football, the number one sport in the country has that large of an impact at the grass roots fan level.  Even though basketball as a sport has less of a following than football.

What I don’t know is how many others feel the same meh.  With the exception of national talking heads that toe the company line, and apparently college presidents, most real college football fans want a playoff.  The real question is how many fans would they gain by creating a playoff?  There is only one way to find out.

Tell me what you think: feedback (shift-2) boldsunflower dott com

State Farm has an ad series playing during NFL football games with various players, refs, fans singing “Feelin’ Kinda Sunday”.  The only problem is, as someone in his 30’s, that song simply makes me sad.  It matches the football atmosphere about as well as dill pickles on a peanut butter sandwich.  I want to turn the TV off every time it comes on.

I’m curious how old the target market is for this ad?  Best guess is 50 years old plus.  It is amazing the power of picking music that matches both the subject, and the target market.